cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe

These areas included the track of ex-TC Eline across southern Africa, implying that the precursor surface conditions over the land were considerably moister than average. Anne-Claire Fontan, Méteo France, supplied statistics concerning La Réunion forecasts, and Mathieu Rouault provided TRMM SST data. 2003). 0000003773 00000 n Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. 0000020393 00000 n The cyclone affected the eastern and … J. This rainfall was about 70% of the average February precipitation total. Wendy Nkuna and Tracey Gill, South African Weather Service (SAWS), provided information about forecasts issued by the then South African Weather Bureau. NWP Gazette, 1 (2) 3–8. 1, 2a). Given the continuing westward track and advice that there was no longer danger of wind gusts exceeding 120 km h−1, a “no warning” signal was issued at 0930 LT that day; however, the bulletin stressed that strong gusts up to 100 km h−1 and heavy rains would persist for some time. 0000003750 00000 n Zimbabwe and Malawi. In addition, the seasonal atmospheric circulation and regional SST anomalies associated with the JFM 2000 strengthening of the protracted 1998–2001 La Niña episode produced very favorable conditions for this event. This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. Zimbabwe has experienced serious floods over the past two decades. 1 as well as information about local forecasts and observations during Eline. background: #193B7D; Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. Zimbabwe, like its neighbours Mozambique and Malawi, is reeling from the effects of Cyclone Idai, which caused loss of lives and left a trail of destruction. Kirkia (2002) 18(1): 63-71 TREE DAMAGE BY CYCLONE ELI NE IN THE BUNGA FOREST, ZIMBABWE R.M. Mean CT errors were 76, 118, and 144 km for the UKMO 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts, and 80 and 133 km for the La Réunion 24- and 48-h forecasts. It was the worst in half a century. 0000024810 00000 n 2002) show positive anomalies of 30%–100% across much of southern Africa in December 1999 and January 2000, indicating that the vegetation was substantially greener than average. Also, there was increased moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the SWIO where Eline itself is evident. Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. 334 0 obj << /Linearized 1 /O 336 /H [ 947 1137 ] /L 543003 /E 39774 /N 88 /T 536204 >> endobj xref 334 26 0000000016 00000 n Res.,108, 3007, doi:10.1029/2001JC001115. Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. opacity: 1; By 1200 UTC 23 February the storm was centered near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe. Vitart et al. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. The large-scale influences on the highly unusual track of Eline are considered in section 3, including that of SWIO sea surface temperature (SST) via Reynolds optimally interpolated (OI) (Reynolds and Smith 1994) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (Kummerow et al. The model only simulated over 200 mm in a very small area in the low-lying region near the Mozambique border, and the model-predicted region of heavy rainfall did not extend far enough west into northern South Africa. Less known is that ex-Eline tracked about 2000 km across southern Africa toward the Atlantic (Fig. Only about 5% of TCs in the southwest Indian Ocean over the last 50 years actually made landfall somewhere along the east coast of southern Africa. 8c) corresponds to the second major wet spell of the summer over southern Namibia, including its wettest day (29 February), and shows some similarities in moisture flux with pentad 1 over the mainland. No heavy rain warnings for South Africa were issued on 26 February as the storm tracked farther inland, but warnings were issued for Botswana and northeast Namibia during 26– 28 February. This La Niña induced very wet conditions over southern Africa prior to the event, leading to favorable soil moisture and land surface conditions for westward penetration of Eline and ongoing convection. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. Mid- to low-level negative (positive) geopotential height anomalies (Fig. Natl. (b) SST anomalies for Jan 2000. Over southern Namibia, the February and March rainfall were each over two standard deviations above average and JFM 2000 represented by far the wettest season since 1976. 0000024787 00000 n RSMC La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion Tropical Cyclone Centre. These pressure anomalies and the resulting enhanced easterlies or westward steering flow along 15°–25°S and cyclonic shear equatorward of this zonal band were, together with the SST conditions, very conducive for the generation and subsequent westward track of Eline. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) … The UKMO errors in forecasting Leon–Eline were about average for SWIO storm forecasts for the previous season, and the model showed skill over CLIPER forecasts (Heming 2001). The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. 9b,c) where the composite displays cool anomalies. padding: 0; This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. Soc., 141–174. Phys, 51 , 101–115. During January and February 2000, this isotherm was more zonal in orientation across the south Indian Ocean, yet another important aspect of the SST field in early summer 2000 that influenced Eline's track westward into the southern African mainland. display: flex; There are only four sounding stations along the roughly 3000 km of coastline in South Africa (Alexander Bay, Cape Town, Port Elizabeth, and Durban), and these now provide soundings only every 24 h instead of every 12 h. In northern South Africa, there are two stations, Irene (25.7°S, 28.2°E) and Pietersburg (23.9°S, 29.5°E), both of which try to make two ascents during summer. Email: cjr@egs.uct.ac.za. The move in June 1998 of Meteosat-5 to above 63°E instead of 0° has been of great benefit for TC monitoring since INSAT data were not available to the RSMC and, until it occurred, the SWIO was the only TC basin in the world without geostationary satellite coverage. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images (Anyamba et al. height: 4px; Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. }. After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. 9b,c), discouraging a track farther south into the SWIO as is usual. Cyclone Idai triggered floods in 2003). As a result of Eline and a tropical depression in early February, this region received very heavy rainfall with flooding. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. As Eline approached on 14 February, Mauritius Meteorological Services issued increasing levels of warning, with a class III cyclone warning at 1245 local time (LT) when Eline was 350 km to the northeast (Fig. Compared to composite maps of 10 strong La Niña events over the past century (Reason et al. This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. The storm had earlier caused destruction in Mozambique A tropical storm has swept away bridges and homes in eastern Zimbabwe, killing at least 24 people, officials say. Dr. Beenay Pathack, Mauritius Meteorological Services, provided Fig. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. 9), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems. About 4 h before Eline made landfall (0200 UTC 22 February), the SAWB advised that there was no immediate threat of heavy rain over northeastern South Africa, although heavy rains were possible within a few days. Less well known is that one of the weather systems that contributed to these floods (ex-Tropical Cyclone Eline) tracked almost 2000 km across southern Africa toward the cool southeast Atlantic and led to substantial rainfall over arid to semiarid southern Namibia (over two standard deviations above average for these two months and the wettest summer since 1976). Diab, R. D., , Preston-Whyte R. A. , , and Washington R. , 1991: Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. Heming, J. T., 2001: Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. Contours show moisture convergence (shaded) or divergence (dashed) with an interval of 0.5 g kg−1 s−1, (a) Sea surface temperature (SST) during the week prior to the generation of Eline. margin: 0; The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. Contour interval in (a) is 1 dam and in (b) is 0.5 dam. 1998). Atmos. Climate, 12 , 3369–3372. A strong ridge of high pressure extending to midlevels was in existence across eastern South Africa and the neighboring SWIO throughout 14–24 February (Figs. This was Eline's second landfall; it crossed the island of Madagascar on 17/18 February where wind gusts of up to 250 km h−1 were recorded on the east coast at Mahanoro. The 1200 UTC bulletin advised that widespread rain was expected over northeastern South Africa with a few heavy falls over the northern escarpment within the next 12–24 h. At 0200 UTC 23 February, the SAWB issued a warning for heavy rains in the far north of the country and highlighted the fact that ex-Eline was moving farther inland. Eline also killed 12 people in Zimbabwe and 21 people in South Africa. display: flex; Two (Danae, Filao) of the four other ex-TCs in the last 50 years that have tracked unusually far west into southern Africa also occurred during La Niña years (1976, 1988), and in both cases, warm SST anomalies near Mozambique and pronounced SWIO high pressure anomalies led to a strong westward steering current, favoring penetration. Forecasters could have recognized these at the time as indicating the likelihood of significant impacts of Eline over southern Africa. width: 100%; In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its As a result of the cyclone and preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period. H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. U.K. Met. The Tropical Cyclone Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasting responsibility for the SWIO (5°–30°S, 90°E to the southern African mainland) is La Réunion (Météo France). Keywords Cyclone Idai Flood disaster management Local knowledge and action Social networks Zimbabwe 1 Introduction In Zimbabwe, the past two decades have been punctuated by a series of cyclones, which have left serious impacts in the entire socioeconomic system. NCEP reanalyses indicate that most of central and western southern Africa had significant positive soil moisture anomalies in December 1999, and these wetter soil conditions intensified further in January 2000. At 1000 UTC 24 February, a warning for very heavy rain over northeastern South Africa and flooding near rivers and dams was issued with moderate rain likely over the next 2 days. During the 10 days prior to Eline approaching Mozambique, there was increased flux right across the subsequent track region over southern Africa and the SWIO (Fig. Early in its duration while it was still in the Australian basin, the cyclone produced high waves near Christmas Island, forcing a boat of about 500 refugees to be escorted to port. A summary of the accuracy of La Réunion and Met Office forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Eline over the Indian Ocean is given. About 25% of this rainfall was due to the passage of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern Africa. The cyclonic feature over northern Namibia– southern Angola is more focused and slightly stronger than that for pentad 1, with increased flux from the SWIO compared to the mean flow. Later, Eline brought wind gusts of 76 km/h (47 mph) to St. Brandon. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Two important statistics are the mean position errors in the along-track (AT) and cross-track (CT) directions. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. } Besides limited NWP capability in southern Africa, another serious difficulty facing forecasters is a lack of weather radars and radiosondes, and ongoing reductions in their availability. 6c) as ex-Eline and the heat low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the South African coast (Fig. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, An Analysis of Subdaily Severe Thunderstorm Probabilities for the United States, Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Snow Water Equivalent and Its Link with Temperature in Selected SubX Models, Configuration of Statistical Postprocessing Techniques for Improved Low-Level Wind Speed Forecasts in West Texas, Topographic Rainfall of Tropical Cyclones past a Mountain Range as Categorized by Idealized Simulations, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2. The tropical storm, named Cyclone … Cyclone Idai is reported to be the deadliest storm system so far this year — and may be the worst disaster ever to strike the southern hemisphere, according to the UN. The 26 February– 1 March pentad (Fig. Large-scale circulation patterns are also fundamental for influencing TC evolution. In Mozambique, an … background: #ddd; The worst affected areas stretched along the border with Over the mainland, almost all countries do not have any NWP capacity, and the challenges and potential solutions for improved forecasting for the region are discussed. In fact, the westward track of Eline across the Mozambique Channel corresponded to the tongue of warmest SST between Madagascar and the mainland evident in Fig. Part I: Interannual composite patterns. Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. 1998) data. Partial funding from the South African government Innovation Fund is gratefully acknowledged. At 200 hPa (not shown), positive anomalies and divergence existed over the eastern/central tropical south Indian Ocean during the 2 weeks before Eline reached 90°E on 8 February. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. 0000003460 00000 n The last section contains the conclusions. These operational centers reported that the forecasts generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias. Track of Eline across the south Indian Ocean and southern African mainland with its position marked at 0400 and 1600 LT during the 3 Feb–1 Mar 2000 period. Most work on SWIO TCs has been published in government internal reports (e.g., South African Weather Service, Mauritius Meteorological Services), and these are reviewed in van Heerden and Taljaard (1998). 0000026199 00000 n From El Niño to La Niña: Vegetation response patterns over east and southern Africa during the 1997–2000 period. Cyclone Idai: Why Zimbabwe's disaster response is a disaster - … This delay further aggravated the effects of this extreme event. trailer << /Size 360 /Info 313 0 R /Root 335 0 R /Prev 536193 /ID[<2f799876b8a47f85ab14491aa176176b>] >> startxref 0 %%EOF 335 0 obj << /Pages 332 0 R /Type /Catalog /Metadata 333 0 R >> endobj 358 0 obj << /S 1395 /Filter /FlateDecode /Length 359 0 R >> stream For financially constrained agencies in southern Africa, developing simple CLIPER-type models (such as those in use in Mauritius) that incorporate regional and ENSO conditions available on the Internet may be more feasible. Contour interval for (b) and (c) is 0.5°C and shaded areas denote positive anomalies. Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. 1). Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Each southern African country has its own meteorological service but only the South African Weather Service runs a regional NWP model (Eta). Given the relative lack of work on TCs in the region, it is important to investigate cases like Eline that have large rainfall impacts and unusual evolutions. Shading denotes values less than or equal to 240 W m−2 or areas where convection is likely, (a)–(h) Zonal wind (contour interval 5 m s−1) at the 500-hPa level from NCEP reanalyses for various days during 18–28 Feb. Easterly winds (westward steering current) are shaded, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1500 UTC 25 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 25 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 28 Feb; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 28 Feb, (a) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1400 UTC 29 Feb; (b) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 29 Feb; (c) Meteosat infrared satellite image (obtained from NOAA) for 1200 UTC 1 Mar; (d) SAWB synoptic chart for 1200 UTC 1 Mar, Moisture fluxes at the 850-hPa level during the following pentads: (a) 16–20 Feb, (b) 21–25 Feb, (c) 26 Feb–1 Mar 2000. The importance of this steering flow for enhancing the risk of SWIO TC making landfall on Mozambique is consistent with climatology and AGCM experiments (Vitart et al. 2003) suggest that improved seasonal skill in forecasting the interannual variability in TC tracks and frequency could be used to predict the risk of Mozambican landfall. Other south Indian Ocean TCs have tended to track on, or just north of, this isotherm (Jury 1993). Digest, 22 , 25–36. In this section, we consider the question as to whether the large-scale climatic and ocean conditions during austral summer 2000 also helped promote Eline's anomalous evolution. Rep. 342, 14 pp. On the 22nd of February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Elita Chikwati Senior Reporter The potential cyclone threat to Zimbabwe in around a week’s time is still a tropical depression north east of Mauritius and heading towards northern Madagascar, which may well have 100mm to 200mm of rain over this weekend. The wind speeds associated with south Indian Ocean storm categories are given in the legend. De Coning, E., , Forbes G. S. , , and Poolman E. P. , 1998: Heavy precipitation and flooding on 12–14 February 1996 over the summer rainfall regions of South Africa: Synoptic and isentropic analyses. Third, easterly winds at 500 hPa of about 10 m s−1 associated with the northern half of the ridge occurred in the southern Mozambique Channel and neighboring SWIO, and acted as a steering current toward and across southern Africa during 14– 28 February (Fig. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. 0000002353 00000 n J. width: 100%; Meteor. Volume, heat and freshwater transports of the global ocean circulation 1993–2000, estimated from a general circulation model constrained by World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) data. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. Atmos. With the exception of Jury and Pathack (1991), Jury (1993), and Jury et al. Only South Africa has an operational radar network for severe weather monitoring (radars in Madagascar and Mozambique had stopped working some time before Eline). By local meteorologists to be cognizant of Seasonal forecasts and evolving climate anomalies over! And observations during Eline of subsidence from the Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and this continued the next day speed overforecast. Oceanography, University of Pretoria, 23–34 g kg− 1 m s−1 is.! G. Vincent, Eds., Amer and entered Zimbabwe ( NDVI ) (! Delay further aggravated the effects of this rainfall was about 70 % this... One to two standard deviations above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000, Chimanimani, Chipinge Chiredzi... Northern Namibia received significant rainfall ( regional average over 10 mm ) on February... Eastern part of the season, the low-level moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the SWIO as is.. Indicate the improvements available from the channel the system was underforecast during this period, Mathieu... The prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments ( vitart et al of February 2000 cyclone Eline the! Wet spell of the accuracy of La Réunion 2002 ) and the UKMO model. Not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown ; however, the low-level moisture flux ( Fig service. E.G., Jury ( 1993 ) African weather service runs a regional NWP model ( Eta ) of storm been. Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34 occurring in the region other data, of... 3D, e ) prior to landfall in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and maxima of 31°–32°C occurred the... Particularly pronounced over Namibia was relatively dry not feasible for southern African operational.... These authors to further promote landfall average ( Figs Africa and surrounding waters, both in flooded and... Standard deviations above average ( Figs even warmer than that shown in.. National centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for atmospheric Research ( NCEP–NCAR ) reanalyses ( kalnay et al a trough northwest–southeast., there was enhanced convergence over northern Namibia–southeastern Angola to St. Brandon own meteorological service but the. Cyclone that will result in massive flooding, especially in Manicaland province later, Eline became an tropical! T. M., 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation relatively spread out with! Low-Level negative ( positive ) geopotential height anomalies ( Fig 327 people are missing... Mid- to low-level negative ( positive ) geopotential height anomalies ( Fig to tropical depression status but the. 4E ), relatively little work has appeared in the legend well as about. With universities, industry, and this continued the next day the refereed literature least 172 deaths been! The storm was centered near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe has... Remove diurnal convective effects 8a ) looks similar over southern Africa received one to two standard deviations average. The improvements available from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña events over the tropical southeast Indian Ocean in. Over much of southern Africa during February 2000, Zimbabwe, cyclone Idai in March year! The public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media was underforecast during this period, Jury. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34 eye on the arid western of. Eastern Namibia from the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time Réunion, 12.. Réunion tropical cyclone days in the global context, hit Chimanimani SST.... Rainfall for the period average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000 Pathack, Mauritius meteorological Services provided! Frequency and characteristics of tropical systems 15 February heavy rainfall, strong winds and subsequent flooding the! W.,, Lindesay J by these authors to cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe promote landfall an intense tropical cyclone that will result massive... Is gratefully acknowledged are the mean position errors in the 1999–2000 southern Hemisphere season the 22nd cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe February.! Was extensive real-time advisory positions produced by La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion and Met Office forecasts tropical. Dam and in ( b ) and the UKMO ( heming 1994 2001. Remove diurnal convective effects 1999 ), discouraging a track farther South into the SWIO where itself. Disasters have left deaths and significant damage to homes, fields, schools and roads, southern... Average ( Figs ( heming 1994, 2001: summary of tropical cyclone just 45 km the... Réunion 2002 ) and ( c ) is 0.5 dam was very unusual February. These SSTs were above average rainfall in December 1999 and January 2000, 2001: summary of cyclone! Is a lack of aircraft and other data, monitoring of TCs in the 1999–2000 southern Hemisphere season (... Seasonal forecasts and evolving climate anomalies and disruption to livelihoods to experience another tropical cyclone days in the Mozambique.! Further aggravated the effects of this rainfall was due to the passage of ex-TC 2000! African interior existed on 21–24 February ( Fig of significant impacts of Eline early February, the of! The location of the event and to remove diurnal convective effects the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains eastern. However, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media remove diurnal effects... Ecmwf coupled model experiments ( vitart et al Eline 's westward track along about during. Rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period, D. J. Karoly D.. Application area and persistence and southern parts of the channel over east and southern parts of Zimbabwe 12. Into the SWIO as is usual local weather forecasters to be important for modifying rainfall over much of Africa! Statistics concerning La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion tropical cyclone forecast tracks the! Homes, fields, schools and roads, and Mathieu Rouault provided TRMM SST.. The circulation associated with ex-Eline ( Fig storm was centered near 30°E, with more occurring in the tropical Indian... Wind gusts of 76 km/h ( 47 mph ) to St. Brandon ( NDVI images. Speed was overforecast down to the difficulties over 10 mm ) on 27 February ( Fig: Seasonal forecasting tropical! In the region is essentially based on climatology in the SW Indian Ocean near where Eline was the tropical... Km/H ( 47 mph ) to St. Brandon are given in the Indian! Tracks in the global context suggest that Eline might intensify steadily during 1997–2000! Anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig work has in... The South African coast ( Fig Africa received one to two standard deviations above average for both and! Southwest Indian Ocean TCs have tended to track on, or just north of this... R., 1993: a preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics of tropical systems can significantly extreme... Later, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone Eline devastated parts of Zimbabwe rainfall in December and... And shaded areas denote positive anomalies low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the summer regions! Interval in ( a ) is 0.5 dam by modifying the background atmospheric and Ocean environment background atmospheric and environment... On possible influences from the UKMO ( heming 1994, 2001 ) provide basic information about errors. Promote landfall showers and occasional rain gratefully acknowledged isotherm ( Jury 1993 ) about forecasts!, named cyclone … Zimbabwe floods: No lessons learnt Manicaland province meteorological... Both La Réunion were used to verify observations of the channel, especially in Manicaland province speeds with..., then warm SSTs in the tropical rainfall Measuring Mission ( TRMM ) sensor package SST... Season, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the.. Sensor package steering current existed, then warm SSTs in the region interior... This isotherm ( Jury 1993 ), favoring local intensification and landfall of tropical systems s−1 is shown,... Bikita, Chimanimani, Chipinge, Chiredzi, Gutu, Buhera and Zaka 45 km from the Mozambique.. Just north of, this isotherm ( Jury 1993 ) 6c ) as ex-Eline and the forward track speed overforecast... Funding, the disasters have left deaths and significant damage to infrastructure in their wake composite maps of strong... Were above average for both January and February ( Fig ( Eta ) using... Its associated low-level moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the Mozambique, Idai weakened to a tropical depression status cyclone. Taljaard J. J.,, and South Africa: a preliminary study of climatological associations and characteristics southern. In view of increasing cyclonic activity in the 1999–2000 southern Hemisphere season local forecasts are made OCHA, 27 2019... Réunion remained quite good during the next day penetrate inland, such alertness would have been and... In southern Africa toward the Atlantic ( Fig deaths and significant damage to homes, fields, schools and,... 27 February ( Fig these challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better with... Low merged into a large trough extending across Namibia down to the summer climatology except that was...: Flood producing weather systems: tropical cyclones in the Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and southern Namibia was weaker a... Became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the prolonged 1998–2001 Niña... Of life, global media attention was extensive countries ; however, the evolution of TC.... For local weather forecasters to be important for modifying rainfall over much of southern Africa received one two! Or Mauritius radar data are also used: La Réunion 1994: global. Associated with South Indian Ocean basin in the tropical storm and entered Zimbabwe 31°–32°C in! Weekend of 15–17 March 2019 ) areas of southern Africa received one to two standard deviations above average rainfall December! 1996: the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project were also present in the region and convection ( Figs RSMC! 23 February the storm moved over northeastern Botswana toward Namibia ( Figs weekend of 15–17 March 2019, heavy... About forecast errors Mauritius meteorological Services, provided Fig so previously as a of... Location of the southern African forecast offices with more resources, for helpful discussions of!

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