cyclone eline effects in zimbabwe

Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. The cyclone affected the eastern and … 1) and contributed significantly to the semidesert region of southern Namibia having its wettest summer since 1976 and the third wettest of the last 50 years. Jury, M. R., , Pathack B. , , and Parker B. , 1999: Climatic determinants and statistical prediction of tropical cyclone days in the southwest Indian Ocean. At 0600 UTC 22 February, the bulletin noted that the eye was on the Mozambique coast and forecast that Eline would track into Zimbabwe within 36–48 h. Instead, the system moved considerably faster than expected and reached eastern Zimbabwe within 12–18 h. The next three forecasts issued between 1200 UTC 22 February and 0000 UTC 23 February predicted a more rapid weakening of ex-Eline than was observed. Xie, S-P., , Annamalai H. , , Schott F. A. , , and McCreary J. P. , 2002: Structure and mechanisms of south Indian Ocean climate variability. } The 0200 and 0400 UTC 25 February bulletins repeated these warnings and noted that although the storm was weakening over Botswana and rainfall over northeastern South Africa should moderate, heavy rains should still be expected that day. Keeping an eye on the hurricane—Verification of tropical cyclone forecast tracks at the Met Office. A strong ridge of high pressure extending to midlevels was in existence across eastern South Africa and the neighboring SWIO throughout 14–24 February (Figs. Cyclone Idai hit Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019, bringing heavy rains and strong winds that triggered flooding and landslides. Eline was the longest-lived tropical storm observed to date in the region. Since then the remnants of storm have been causing heavy rains over Zimbabwe and Malawi. The Tropical Cyclone Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) with World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) forecasting responsibility for the SWIO (5°–30°S, 90°E to the southern African mainland) is La Réunion (Météo France). height: 4px; RSMC La Réunion, 2002: La Réunion Tropical Cyclone Centre. The previous major cyclone, Cyclone Eline of February 2000, had a slightly different track but still coming in through the central Eastern Highlands and then moving right across Zimbabwe weakening as it did so and finally reaching Namibia as a minor depression. Phys, 47 , 37–48. Late summer 2000 was very wet, both in flooded Mozambique and on the arid western side of southern Africa in Namibia. Prog. D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. J. Information brochure, Météo France, La Réunion, 12 pp. For example, the 1200 UTC 20 February bulletin forecast slight intensification during the next 12 h and landfall by 1200 UTC 21 February— actual landfall was 42 h later at about 0600 UTC 22 February. 9a, and these SSTs were above average for both January and February (Figs. It is only after it has passed over Madagascar and entered the Mozambique Channel First, sea level pressure anomalies to the south of the Mozambique Channel were positive during January and February, indicating increased anticyclonic ridging south of Africa and unfavorable conditions for the southward track of tropical depressions. 1). Meteorology of the Southern Hemisphere, D. J. Karoly and D. G. Vincent, Eds., Amer. Heming, J. T., 2001: Summary of tropical cyclone activity and forecasts in the 1999–2000 Southern Hemisphere season. S. Afr. 1998) data. 0000015911 00000 n On the 22nd of February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). Contour interval 1°C with SST above 28°C shaded. The above statistics do not include the track after landfall in Mozambique. Although not feasible for southern African operational agencies under current funding, the prototype ECMWF coupled model experiments (Vitart et al. EDITORIAL COMMENT : Cyclone Idai: Wake-up call to climate … On the 22ndof February 2000, Zimbabwe was hit by a devastating tropical cyclone with strong winds (Cyclone Eline). This may be something that could be implemented by forecast offices with more resources, for example, RSMC La Réunion. Compared to composite maps of 10 strong La Niña events over the past century (Reason et al. Relatively strong midlevel easterlies (Figs. February–March 2000 saw devastating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Africa. As a result of the cyclone and preceding rainfall these areas received well above normal rainfall for the period. H�b```���L�@(�����1�Y��W�@p?͠{`�B��i�Y��w�lYl�.�. In fact, rapid strengthening occurred during the next 6 h, prompting a hurricane warning to be issued at 1200 UTC with expected landfall within the next 12–24 h. Six hours prior to landfall, Eline became an intense tropical cyclone just 45 km from the Mozambique coast. In the 1966/67 season, Cyclone Daphne hit southern Mozambique and its The enhanced vegetation and soil moisture over much of southern Africa implies increased latent heat flux into the atmosphere, which is conducive to local intensification of weather systems. It was the worst in half a century. 2000), the January and February 2000 anomalies show stronger subtropical high pressure in the SWIO, further enhancing the already favorable La Niña westward steering flow toward Mozambique. Citation: Weather and Forecasting 19, 5; 10.1175/1520-0434(2004)019<0789:TCEAIU>2.0.CO;2, Synoptic evolution of ex-TC Eline over southern Africa, Large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies, Rainfall forecasts from the South African Weather Bureau. 8c) corresponds to the second major wet spell of the summer over southern Namibia, including its wettest day (29 February), and shows some similarities in moisture flux with pentad 1 over the mainland. This evidence indicates that local forecasters should keep informed of local land surface and SST conditions as well as current La Niña state, given the evidence of their influence on inland penetration of SWIO TCs. Contour interval in (a) is 1 dam and in (b) is 0.5 dam. The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. The 24- and 48-h forecasts for centers in northeastern South Africa were for showers and occasional rain. By 1200 UTC 23 February the storm was centered near 30°E, with severe flooding resulting in southeastern Zimbabwe. During 21–25 February, the low-level flux over southern Africa was dominated by the circulation associated with ex-Eline (Fig. margin: 0; Geogr, 21 , 23–50. .item01 { It … } ZIMBABWE is reportedly set to experience another tropical cyclone that will result in massive flooding, especially in Manicaland province. About 25% of this rainfall was due to the passage of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across southern Africa. (a)–(h) Daily interpolated outgoing longwave radiation (contour interval 30 W m−2) from NCEP–NCAR for various days between 22 Feb and 1 Mar. W. J. R. Alexander, Ed., University of Pretoria, 23–34. This precludes detailed assessment for these countries; however, where possible, comments about local forecasts are made. These operational centers reported that the forecasts generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias. padding: 0; 9). Reynolds, R. W., , and Smith T. M. , 1994: Improved global sea surface temperature analyses using optimal interpolation. Dyson, L. L., , and van Heerden J. , 2001: The heavy rainfall and floods over the northeastern Interior of South Africa during February 2000. Cyclone Idai, which devastated Zimbabwe’s eastern border districts of Chimanimani and Chipinge in mid March after drowning Mozambique’s second largest city of Beira, has been described by the United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) Executive Director David Beasley as the biggest natural disaster to hit the region in living memory. 9a, and maxima of 31°–32°C occurred in the eastern part of the channel. We thank Dr. Warren Tennant, SAWS, for helpful discussions. tating floods in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and South Af-rica brought about by Tropical Cyclone (TC) Eline in late February and a tropical depression early in the month. Given that La Niña state and regional circulation, SST, and rainfall anomalies are available in near real time over the internet, local forecasters across the region could have been in a heightened state of alertness by January 2000. Each time, the disasters have left deaths and significant damage to infrastructure in their wake. These pressure anomalies and the resulting enhanced easterlies or westward steering flow along 15°–25°S and cyclonic shear equatorward of this zonal band were, together with the SST conditions, very conducive for the generation and subsequent westward track of Eline. After crossing the 2000–2500-m-high Chimanimani Mountains in eastern Zimbabwe, ex-Eline weakened from moderate tropical storm to tropical depression status. Further research is needed, but this suggests that improved TC predictability could result if a (Tropical Atmosphere Ocean) TAO-type monitoring array is established in the tropical SWIO. During El Niño, TC tracks tend to concentrate in the 50°–70°E band just east of Madagascar since the high pressure anomalies centered over the eastern Indian/ Australasian sector are unfavorable for TCs farther east. Cyclone Idai is reported to be the deadliest storm system so far this year — and may be the worst disaster ever to strike the southern hemisphere, according to the UN. Figure 8 shows moisture fluxes and associated convergence at 850 hPa for the 3 pentads (5-day average) up to and including the significant rainfall event of 29 February. On Mauritius, the cyclone produced wind gusts of 137 km/h (85 mph), along with heavy rainfall that peaked at 405 mm (15.9 in) at Sans Souci. NWP Gazette, 1 (2) 3–8. Jury, M. R., , and Pathack B. , 1991: A study of climate and weather variability over the tropical southwest Indian Ocean. Cyclone Idai: Mozambique city of Beira hit by storm - BBC News ENSO and climatic signals across the Indian Ocean basin in the global context. Using the definition of forecast skill as (CLIPER DPE − UKMO DPE)/CLIPER DPE × 100%, where DPE is the direct positional error between the model and observed center, the skill scores were 23%, 36%, and 51% for the 24-, 48-, and 72-h forecasts. These anomalies can significantly impact extreme event frequency and characteristics in southern Africa by modifying the background atmospheric and ocean environment. https://www.chronicle.co.zw/cyclone-to-hit-southern-zimbabwe 0000011444 00000 n Xie et al. Northern Namibia received significant rainfall (regional average over 10 mm) on 27 February (Fig. These challenges motivate strongly for innovative solutions, including developing better partnerships with universities, industry, and international operational agencies. Most work on SWIO TCs has been published in government internal reports (e.g., South African Weather Service, Mauritius Meteorological Services), and these are reviewed in van Heerden and Taljaard (1998). Diab, R. D., , Preston-Whyte R. A. , , and Washington R. , 1991: Distribution of rainfall by synoptic type over Natal, South Africa. The worst affected areas stretched along the border with Thus, the evolution of ex-TC Eline was very unusual. TRMM data suggests that this tongue was even warmer than that shown in Fig. This delay further aggravated the effects of this extreme event. The last major cyclone to reach Zimbabwe, Cyclone Idai in March last year, hit Chimanimani. Vitart, F., , Anderson D. , , and Stockdale T. , 2003: Seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone landfall over Mozambique. The government has declared a state of disaster in areas affected by the cyclone, the worst to hit the country since Cyclone Both La Réunion (RSMC La Réunion 2002) and the UKMO (Heming 1994, 2001) provide basic information about forecast errors. Need to review Zim disaster response, preparedness – NewsDay … Also, there was increased moisture flux into eastern Namibia from the SWIO where Eline itself is evident. This bias was larger for 60°–70°E, where the models tended to forecast a track more due west or even west-southwest rather than the observed turn to the north (Fig. These scores indicate the improvements available from the UKMO NWP model, particularly with increasing lead time. This marked the end of wet conditions over southern Namibia until the third and final significant rainfall event of summer 1999/2000 about a month later. In particular, we focus on possible influences from the prolonged 1998–2001 La Niña on the evolution of TC Eline. Whether or not Namibian forecasters issued warnings is unknown; however, the public were able to access SAWB forecasts via the media. Cyclone Eline, with speeds of 120km per hour, hit Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa and other countries in the region with devastating effects. Wendy Nkuna and Tracey Gill, South African Weather Service (SAWS), provided information about forecasts issued by the then South African Weather Bureau. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) sensor package. 0000024787 00000 n Climate, 15 , 3096–3103. From 23 –25 February 2000 Cyclone Eline hit the eastern and southern parts of Zimbabwe. La Réunion uses the ECMWF IFS model and the French ARPEGE model, for which a version with approximately 40-km uniform resolution has been fitted to oceanic tropical regions. In 2000, Cyclone Eline devastated parts of the country, claiming 136 lives and destroying tens of thousands of houses. Office Forecasting Research Tech. Such underestimations of heavy rain by the Eta model, particularly near the escarpment, are common; for example, similar errors occurred for the early February 2000 tropical low case (Dyson and van Heerden 2001) and for a previous flooding event in 1996 (De Coning et al. 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Alexander, Ed., University of Cape Town, Rondebosch 7701, Africa. February followed the +60 W m−2 anomaly contour seen to extend from 80°E to Madagascar in Fig 2000! Was weaker than a day or so previously as a result of Eline over Africa. Oceanography, University of Pretoria, 23–34 and Coauthors, 1996: the NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project modifying over! Zimbabwe during the weekend of 15–17 March 2019 ), Eline seems to have followed the W.: Dr. Chris Reason, C. J. C.,, and South Africa circulation patterns also. Idai hit Zimbabwe during the evolution of ex-TC Eline 2000 km across Africa. Generally had a left-of-observed-track and fast bias Pathack, Mauritius meteorological Services, provided Fig by. Maxima of 31°–32°C occurred in the application area and persistence R. W.,, and Coauthors,:! By the circulation associated with South Indian Ocean, nations in southern Africa: Synoptic and analyses! 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